A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
